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Evaluating the Impact of Value Menu Items

The Challenge

A national, full-service restaurant chain was looking to measure the impact of two new value menus and wanted to know:

  • Which of two new value menus is most effective at increasing guest frequency?
  • Which is most effective at encouraging guests to trade away from specialty items with a higher COGS?

The Solution

Fishbowl’s Guest Analytics was leveraged to create a test environment for the menus that would allow the chain to compare the results and decide whether the menus had a true statistically significant impact on the decisions of guests.

The Results

One menu ($10 Entrée & Salad) test group 2was slightly more effective than the other (10 meals under $10), but there was insufficient evidence that either program had a significant impact on increasing guest frequency. The Entrée & Salad menu shifted preferences away from specialty items and towards the Entrées it offered (primarily pizzas) while the 10 under $10 menu shifted guest preferences towards the specialty items.

Moving Forward

Though the client did not find evidence to support a change moving forward, they continue to make smart, data-driven decisions. An analytics solution will not always make obvious the best strategic move at any given time, but it will greatly reduce the risk in trying new strategies. The client was able to gather the statistically significant data that suggested the menus were ineffective while limiting the test to a small fraction of stores over just a few months. Unhampered by a commitment to a bad strategy, they are free to test new ideas.test group 1

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